sdruiyuan@ruiyuanfertilizer.com
Weekly Fertilizer Market Dynamics Analysis
2026-06-05
Global Urea Prices Fall as China Plans More Exports and India Prepares Tender
Global urea prices dropped sharply in recent days, pressured by rising export supply from China, weak import demand across major markets, and caution ahead of a large Indian buying tender. Most key trading regions saw lower prices, with limited trading activity as buyers waited for clearer market signals.
In the Middle East, urea prices fell to $545–600/t FOB. A 45,000-tonne spot cargo from Oman was sold at $545/t FOB for July loading. QatarEnergy issued a tender to sell 45,000 tonnes of urea but received little interest. Shipping bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz continued to restrict trade flows.
China is set to resume large-scale urea exports in mid-June, with planned volumes of 2.2–2.6 million tonnes this month. Annual export quotas will run until late September, following a similar system in 2025. Chinese urea export prices declined to $555–630/t FOB as global prices softened. Domestic production remained stable, but lower coal costs squeezed producer margins.
European and former Soviet Union markets also weakened. Baltic urea prices fell to $480–530/t FOB, and Black Sea prices dropped to $500–530/t FOB. A Russian producer’s tender received bids below $500/t FOB with no confirmed deals. European demand remained weak, and EU officials were discussing changes to carbon border rules that may affect fertilizer costs. UK, French and German local prices also moved lower.
In the Americas, Brazilian import urea prices fell to $520–565/t CFR. A 10,000-tonne deal was concluded at $520/t CFR Santos for late June and early July delivery. Domestic production resumed after a plant shutdown, easing local supply tightness. US Gulf urea prices stood at $440–467/t FOB, with limited trading and muted seasonal demand.
Asia-Pacific markets were quiet ahead of India’s major tender. India will open a 1.7-million-tonne urea import tender on June 8 for July shipment. Local inventories rose to 8 million tonnes, and May production was steady at 2.5 million tonnes. The monsoon season has begun in southern India, which may support farm demand later. Southeast Asian urea prices fell to $570–630/t FOB as buyers held back. Australian import demand remained weak.
Ammonium sulphate prices also moved lower in line with urea. Chinese export prices declined to $235–245/t FOB, and Brazilian and European prices softened. Some domestic grades in China were supported by expected overseas demand.
Market outlook remains cautious. Prices may stay volatile before the Indian tender results. Further declines are possible if tender awards are low. A slight rebound may follow after the tender, but strong Chinese export supply is expected to limit urea price gains in the near term.
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